Summary:
Japan’s fixed telecom market is projected to experience only modest growth through 2030, with total revenues rising slightly as gains in fiber broadband offset declines in traditional voice services. According to GlobalData, revenues will increase marginally at a 0.4% CAGR, reflecting a shift toward high-speed connectivity and bundled offerings in a mature market. While fixed voice revenues are expected to continue falling due to bundled pricing, broadband revenues will grow steadily, supported by ongoing fiber expansion, network upgrades, and the transition away from legacy copper infrastructure.
Japan’s fixed communications sector is expected to see only limited expansion over the remainder of the decade, as the rise of fiber broadband helps counterbalance the continued drop in traditional voice services, according to recent figures from GlobalData.
The firm projects that overall fixed service revenues in Japan will edge up from $26.4 billion in 2025 to $26.9 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 0.4%. This restrained increase highlights an ongoing transformation in the market, with operators depending more on high-speed connectivity and bundled service packages to maintain earnings in a mature and highly saturated landscape.
Revenue from fixed voice services is anticipated to keep declining, with GlobalData estimating a CAGR of -1.8% during the forecast period. This decrease is mainly attributed to the increasing popularity of bundled offerings, where voice services are often provided at no extra charge. Meanwhile, fixed broadband revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.3%, driven by the continued rollout of fiber-optic networks.
According to Neha Mishra, a telecom analyst at GlobalData, growth will persist despite already high fiber adoption, supported by network enhancements, premium high-speed plans, and the gradual shift away from legacy copper infrastructure.
The analyst emphasized that supportive government policies and shifting consumer needs will continue to drive market growth. She noted that Japan aims to achieve near-universal fiber coverage by 2027, prompting operators to extend FTTH services to underserved regions while upgrading existing infrastructure.
Mishra also highlighted increasing demand for ultra-fast connectivity, fueled by cloud applications, remote working, and 4K/8K video streaming, which is encouraging both households and businesses to adopt multi-gigabit fiber plans.
At the same time, bundled offerings are playing a more prominent role in sustaining operator revenues as demand for standalone voice services declines. She explained that combining services has become a key strategy, with providers integrating fiber broadband alongside mobile, IPTV, and other digital services to enhance customer retention and boost average revenue per user (ARPU).
Meanwhile, competition in Japan’s fixed broadband sector is moving away from network coverage and focusing more on performance. Mishra pointed out that as fiber availability nears nationwide levels, operators are differentiating themselves through higher speeds and advanced network capabilities rather than expanding basic access.
This shift is reflected in the rollout of faster services, including plans by NTT to introduce next-generation fiber speeds. She noted that operators are advancing toward multi-gigabit offerings, with NTT preparing to launch 25 Gbps FTTH services in Tokyo in March 2026, underscoring the push for higher-capacity networks.
While NTT is expected to retain its leading position in subscriber market share through 2030, Mishra added that competitors such as SoftBank and KDDI are likely to achieve significant subscriber growth.
